The Shift from Overpopulation to Underpopulation
For many years, the global conversation revolved around the threat of overpopulation. The concern was that too many people would strain Earth’s resources, leading to environmental degradation, food shortages, and increased competition for limited space and services. However, in recent years, this narrative has undergone a dramatic transformation.
Birth rates are declining across the globe, not just in developed nations like Japan or the United States, but also in countries that were once expected to experience significant population growth, such as India and Indonesia. What was once considered a ticking demographic time bomb is now being replaced by a new fear: a world with too few people.
A World Approaching Peak Population
In an interview with Bloomberg, Jennifer Sciubba, a political demographer and head of the Population Reference Bureau, discussed the changing landscape of global population trends. She noted that while birth rates are indeed falling in many countries, it does not necessarily mean that the global population has already reached its peak. According to the United Nations, the world population is still expected to reach around 10.3 billion by the 2080s before starting to decline.
Despite this projection, signs of change are becoming increasingly visible. In the United States, for example, 40% of counties are now experiencing population shrinkage—a phenomenon that was once rare. Sciubba emphasized that this shift in population forecasts is relatively new. For many years, declining fertility rates were primarily observed in wealthier countries. Now, however, this trend is becoming a global pattern, as people everywhere are reevaluating what family size should look like.
Factors Driving the Decline in Birth Rates
Several factors contribute to the drop in birth rates. Improved access to contraception, along with the rising financial and emotional costs of raising children, have led many individuals and couples to choose smaller families. This shift reflects broader societal changes, including greater gender equality, more women entering the workforce, and a general rethinking of traditional family roles.
Real-World Impacts of Population Shifts
Sciubba highlights that population shifts are not a one-size-fits-all crisis. Instead, they bring a complex mix of challenges, often in contradictory ways. One of the most pressing issues is aging populations. In many countries, especially those with “pay-as-you-go” pension systems, there are fewer workers to support a growing number of retirees. This puts immense pressure on welfare structures that were not designed for such lopsided demographics.
At the same time, governments face conflicting priorities. Some are working to address current housing shortages, while others worry about future empty schools and underutilized infrastructure. These shifts force a reevaluation of long-standing policies, from urban planning to education and healthcare investments.
Political and Economic Implications
From a political perspective, Sciubba notes that countries with very young populations can be more prone to unrest and instability. In contrast, aging nations must find new ways to grow their economies and maintain social cohesion as traditional family and work structures evolve.
Beyond Headcounts: Rethinking Solutions
Sciubba argues that simply throwing money at the problem rarely works. Countries like South Korea have implemented various incentives, including cash bonuses, subsidized childcare, and housing support, but these measures have had limited success. The country still holds the world’s lowest birth rate.
Immigration is often proposed as a solution, but it is not a straightforward fix. While it can help, it comes with its own set of challenges, including political resistance, cultural tensions, and concerns about job markets and national identity.
Building Supportive Systems
Instead of focusing solely on increasing birth rates, Sciubba suggests that the emphasis should shift toward building systems that truly support people. This includes affordable childcare, robust healthcare, and assistance for older adults. It also means creating opportunities for people to work longer if they choose, without forcing them into retirement at an early age just to sustain pension systems.
Redefining Success
Perhaps most importantly, Sciubba calls for a shift in how we measure success. Population growth should not be the sole indicator of progress. A smaller, healthier, and more resilient society may serve people better than one that is constantly striving for expansion.